Why Can’t We Be Friends: Automotive Partnerships Pick Up

The automotive landscape is in a pretty significant state of flux right now, with sales down, tariffs up, and a trade war looming around the corner. But, driven by the ever-increasing pressure to generate value for their shareholders, automakers can’t just sit back, shrug and say, “hey, shit happens, guys.” So what we’re seeing is a dramatic uptick in the number of partnerships between automakers and investment by automakers in technology companies. The largest of these is undoubtedly Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi partnership, heralded by Carlos Ghosn, which is an alliance, but not a single company like the Volkswagen Automotive Group, which holds Audi, Porsche, Bugatti, Skoda and others. Just by cooperating, Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi saved a collective $6.6 billion last year alone. This is by sharing development costs of new platforms, technologies, parts, components and by their increased purchasing power, being able to buy more in bulk at a cheaper price. The alliance is basically like a membership to automotive Costco. There's been talk about this alliance becoming a merger, but Ghosn squashed those rumours this week.

And when someone says their alliance saved them almost $7 billion in a year, people start paying attention, specifically that same Volkswagen Automotive Group announced a strategic alliance this week with Ford. The details of the Memorandum of Understanding signed are pretty vague, but it sounds from the statements made like it’s an awful lot like Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi, where they will share development costs and technology, apparently primarily for commercial vehicles. I’d say this is a win for both companies since Ford has been ahead in the hybrid game for a while and Volkswagen’s infotainment system is one of the best I’ve used in a long time, but how necessary those are for commercial vehicles is another question. I’ll go ahead and take credit for the partnership since my household has been a Ford-VW garage since February.

Volkswagen isn’t stopping with Ford though. Through their Audi brand, they are partnering with Hyundai to co-develop fuel cell vehicles. Audi has apparently been tasked with developing fuel cells for the rest of the Volkswagen Automotive Group while VW works on battery cars. Audi will start working with Hyundai’s ix35 fuel cell SUV and the forthcoming Nexo and leverage collective R&D to take their fuel cell tech to the next level. The next level, of course, being a level at which someone might want to purchase a fuel cell vehicle, which I think is probably more a matter of fueling infrastructure than car quality or availability at this point. Regardless, the partnership should save both companies a lot.

But speaking of Volkswagen running the battery game, they announced this week that they have increased their stake in QuantumScape Corporation, forming a joint venture for the purpose of producing viable solid state batteries. The goal here is to put them in production vehicles by 2025. If that sounds familiar, it’s because Toyota is doing pretty much the same thing, but on their own. Future partnership incoming? As a refresher, solid state batteries, basically pack more power and energy storage capacity into smaller packages. They said that a solid state battery could increase the range of VW’s E-Golf from its current 186 miles on lithium ion batteries to a whopping 466 miles, which would beat basically every other car out there right now. Hell, that’s more range than my GTI gets on premium gas. I may be looking at the Golf GTE come 2026 or so!

Also in the Volkswagen Automotive Group, Porsche has bought a minority stake in Rimac, makers of two electric super car models, one of which was crashed by Richard Hammond on a hill climb attempt last year. As is the case with most partnerships entered into voluntarily, both companies stand to benefit, with Porsche tapping into Rimac’s experience with electric super cars for their upcoming Taycan and future electric cars, and Rimac getting access to Porsche’s suppliers and potentially greater savings on parts from increased purchasing power.

And you know what stands out to me about these partnerships? They’re all international. Every single one. To me they show the great potential for progress when companies work together, share technology and help one another out, rather than operating in silos, shutting out the competition. The market is tough right now, and if companies are going to survive, they have to work together. And the result for us petrolheads? More choices, lower costs and better, more developed options. If only more people believed in tearing down walls, huh?

Authored by
Devlin Riggs

Electric Vehicles: In Demand & Bad for the Planet?

While vehicles that plug in for electric power comprise just more than 1 percent of vehicles sold in the United States, electric vehicles may not remain such niche products for much longer. According to a new survey from AAA, as many as 20 percent of consumers want their next car to be electric, which is up five percent from this time last year. The reasons why 80 percent remain disinterested are obvious and well covered – from range anxiety to lack of infrastructure to the fact that batteries are a new technology that haven’t yet been optimized – but those interested in EVs say that the benefit to the environment outweighs the concerns.

But is that even accurate? In China, the government has been offering huge subsidies to encourage automakers to build and sell electric vehicles and the country has the highest adoption rate of EVs of any in the world except Norway. The problem is, their smog problem isn’t going away. In China, 72 percent of the country’s electric power is generated from coal, which, regardless of what conservative talk radio may tell you, is not clean and cannot be made to be clean. You can merely capture and store the carbon byproduct of burning coal to create power. They’re not doing that in China though, and oil company CNPC found that electric vehicles emitted more than double the toxic PM2.5 particles that generate China’s smog than do standard internal combustion vehicles. And, if you like your statistics not brought to you by an oil company whose interests may be somewhat skewed, a University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute paper found that cars that achieved greater than 40 miles per gallon were actually more environmentally friendly than the electric vehicles being made in China. And that’s just when it comes to operating the vehicles.

Add to that a Harvard and Tsinghua Universities study that reported that China’s production of EVs, PHEVs and fuel-cell vehicles generated 50 percent more greenhouse gas emissions than production of internal combustion cars, it’s hard to make the case that electric cars are the more environmentally friendly solution.

Photo by Gwenn Dubourthoumieu

And speaking of production, that’s looking like it’s going to get harder before it gets easier. I’ve discussed this a bit before, but the situation is only worsening when it comes to the global supply of cobalt, which right now is a critical part of the lithium-ion batteries that power most electric vehicles. About 60 percent of the world’s cobalt supply is located in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a country with a humanitarian rap sheet as long as the receipt you get from CVS when you go in just to get some gum. High taxes, the use of child labor and an unstable government all contribute to huge volatility in the cobalt market, which has gotten analysts revising their figures about when they think a shortage is going to hit. The answer is sooner than later. Though the CEO of Cobalt 27 Capital, the owner of the world’s largest stockpile of cobalt, ensures that there won’t be any supply shortages, he does not go on to say just how much companies will have to pay for that supply – costs that would undoubtedly be passed on to consumers and therefore delay adoption of EVs because they’re too expensive. Non-cobalt-company-CEOs are less optimistic, with Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Darlton Commodities both predicting shortages as soon as 2021. Prices have already spiked 300 percent over where they were in 2016 and capacity is not expanding as quickly as demand, which is a recipe for higher prices.

Fortunately, several companies are getting off their asses and doing something about this. Panasonic announced this week that they are working towards lithium-ion batteries that achieve zero cobalt usage in the near future and have been already reducing its content in the batteries that they supply, primarily to Tesla.  Samsung too has been working to reduce cobalt content below the 5% of batteries it currently achieves, and they are hoping to expand recycling programs that will recover cobalt from used cell phone, computer and other lithium-ion battery sources. Currently recycling rates are somewhere between 25 and 50 percent, so there’s a lot of potential for improvement there. Chinese automaker BYD is also developing batteries with a nickel-manganese-cobalt ration that reduces the amount of cobalt, which, in addition to lowering prices, apparently extends the life of the battery, which is a win-win for companies and consumers.

For even more bad news, cars aren’t the only things using lithium-ion batteries. Companies and utilities are expanding the use of modular energy storage systems to better utilize distributed energy resources like solar and wind farms and even hydroelectric generation, so there’s another force working to increase demand for cobalt and other precious metals. Full disclosure- I work for a company that makes those big battery storage units and they are flying off the shelf, so companies will have to both ramp up cobalt production and R&D into technology that uses less of it if there’s any hope of averting a shortage or at least a price spike.

But back to the cars – what does all this mean for those of us who just want a Jeep Wrangler plug-in hybrid? The truth is somewhere in between everything. While 20 percent of people would love an electric vehicle as their next car, not that many will take up the technology, especially with 80 percent of such vehicles being leased right now. It shows that public trust isn’t there that we’ve really mastered electric cars yet and nobody wants to be locked into technology that’ll be obsolete in a couple years. Cobalt demand will cause prices to remain high but the price of gas was high and look what that did – it spurred investment into the research and development of electric vehicles, which have lowered demand and prices have eased up, if only just a bit. The market will adapt, companies will continue to innovate and while EVs aren’t optimized right now and the electrical grid (especially in China) isn’t well suited to provide clean energy for them, it won’t always stay that way. Nor does it mean that EVs are destroying the planet, it just means they’re maybe not as green as we want them to be yet. We’re on a good path right now and have unprecedented choice in vehicles. At least until companies start thinking like Ford, but I don’t think it’s going to become too widespread.

Authored by
Devlin Riggs