Mid-sized sedans - we’ve talked about them before on this site, and the news is rarely good. But recently, it’s just been one hit after the other for the segment and, according to a Bloomberg article this week, there’s a very real possibility that the mid-sized sedan segment ceases to exist in as little as eight years. So could 2018, a year heralded as the Year of the Truck by three very high profile unveilings in Detroit, also be the year the sedan died?
Truthfully, this movement started years ago. After the days of $4 per gallon gasoline subsided, American buyers resumed the 1990s trend of buying gas-guzzling SUVs and driving vehicles vastly larger than they needed or could justify simply because they could. The family car became the family SUV and the primary victims of this trend were the cars that performed most poorly in a shrinking segment. These, of course, were Fiat Chrysler products.
But to his credit, Fiat Chrysler CEO, Sergio Marchionne, did the unthinkable - he killed off the Chrysler 200 and Dodge Dart - the traditional bread-and-butter mid-sized sedan and compact sedans that kept the big three American automakers alive during the oil crisis of the 1970s. And the outcome for Chrysler has been incredible. They’ve refocused their efforts on selling Jeeps, SUVs, big, powerful Dodges and Ram pickups, all of which are much higher margin cars than the 200 or the Dart, and the company is finally looking to turn a profit in 2018, which it has not done since 2012.
Other companies are taking a different path, moving production from the US, Canada or Mexico to China. It’s where pretty much all future Buicks will be built, and Ford has alerted Fusion suppliers that they will cease Mexican production, with the alternatives being China or not producing the car at all. With such a declining pie, the pieces are getting smaller for each manufacturer and to justify their existence, mid-sized sedans need to achieve a greater profit margin, which means cutting production cost or raising price. And in a declining automotive market where SUVs and crossovers frequently cost around the same price as sedans, the latter simply isn’t an option.
So, will 2018 be the year the Sedan died? I think not. Or, I should say, not yet. Toyota has unveiled a brand new Camry and Avalon, the Honda Accord just won car of the year (again) and a new Nissan Altima is coming soon, too. But there’s an unshakable feeling that, even though these sedans will be the best they’ve ever been this generation, this could be sort of a last hurrah for them, as crossovers continue to come in and eat their lunches.
It’s not all sunshine and rainbows for crossovers either, though. A study released today showed that compact crossovers, some of the most popular vehicles, especially among young buyers, are among the fastest depreciating cars on the market, losing up to 1.18 percent of their value every week. It’s terrifying to think that you could go in and buy a Honda HR-V or Toyota C-HR or Mazda CX-3 or any number of the other alphanumeric-named, useless hatchbacks on stilts and find yourself a year later with a car worth just 39 percent what you paid for it 52 weeks ago. And the truth is, there’s no great advantage to these compact crossovers. They have less storage than the cavernous trunks of mid-sized sedans. They handle worse, usually have less powerful engines and generally all have obnoxious styling. But they’re hip and offer a slightly higher ride height, which allows you to see more of the road beyond the screen of your iPhone 10. Plus, they’re easier to park in these urban communities where I’m told the youth all live.
So sure, things could turn around for the sedan, once people realize how poor these compact crossovers are both in terms of value and practicality. But at the rate sales are declining and sedans are being put out to pasture, by the time common sense catches up with buyers - by the time they realize that sedans really are enough car for virtually everything - it could already be too late.
Authored by
Devlin RIggs
This week, BMW reclaimed their Guinness World record for longest vehicle drift, which was taken from them by a Toyota GT86 almost four years ago. To do so, BMW set their new M5 out on a skidpad and let it rip. For eight. Straight. Hours. They covered a truly ridiculous 232.5 miles in that time period and required refueling, but did they stop to gas up? Hell no! BMW saddled up a second M5 with a custom fuel tank and some tech borrowed from fighter jets and performed a mid-drift refuelling, where the second M5 drifted alongside the first one while a technician hung out the window, gassing up the record car. They blew away their old record of 51.3 miles and more than doubled Toyota’s 89.6 miles and kept the rubber tires intact by continuously wetting the skidpad. Undoubtedly, this will drive hundreds of millionaires into BMW dealerships to purchase M5s so they can try to recreate it in their lavish circular private driveways.
Racing has been kind of on a bummer streak lately. Formula 1 had the fewest passes ever this past season, the World Endurance Championship keeps losing teams due to high costs, Forumla E is still kind of a joke and IMSA, which is looking really good, is hard to find. Well good news, sports fans, because the World Rally Championship has launched a WRC All Live package on their WRC+ service that will stream every single rally stage as it happens, along with the ceremonies, interviews and press conferences, among other things. In total, it’ll be more than 25 hours of live video coverage of every rally. It’s not free, unfortunately, and at $10.83 per month or about $110 per year, it’s not cheap, especially considering many of these live stages happen in the middle of the night for us here in North America. But pound-for-pound, rallying is some of the most exciting, entertaining racing you can watch. The only danger is that you’re going to get hooked and start treating any gravel or dirt road as your own private stage when in fact it’s someone’s driveway and they’d like very much if you’d get your stupid Subaru out of their bushes so they can go to work, thank you.
Just when we thought it was over. Just when we thought Elon Musk and Tesla could cool the hype machine and have a real conversation about the bottlenecks in production and challenges of building a car company from the ground up. Just when a very real satellite malfunction may have cost the US Government billions of dollars aboard a SpaceX rocket. Just when shit was getting a little too real, Elon Musk resorted to what he knows best - the rabbit in a hat trick. He tweeted this week that he’s “gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates and rock restaurant" at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA. And you know who will care? The same number of people showing up to Rams games in LA. AND THAT’S NOBODY. That being said, there was a super cool video this week of a Tesla Model X towing a Volvo semi truck up a snowy hill, which is crazy to think it’s capable of doing that, given its max tow rating of just 5,000 pounds. I also saw my first Model 3 on the highway yesterday morning and it looks like a cross between the egg-shaped Model X and the svelte Model S, which is to say I didn’t like it very much.
Toyota and Mazda pulled their own little LeBron James stunt this week except Alabama is in almost no way similar to South Beach Miami, which is probably a good thing, considering the companies plan on building Corollas and crossovers there and not...sand castles? What do they build in South Beach? Failed baseball franchises? In any case, the new $1.6 billion plant will open in Huntsville, which is a charming little town that’s about to get a lot of new manufacturing jobs to complement all the high tech industry that’s there already. Other than crossovers and compact vehicles, we don’t have much information on what Toyota and Mazda will collaborate on there, but I look forward to the chance to interview some Japanese businessmen who have developed southern accents.
A class action lawsuit was filed this week against Ford and Bosch, alleging that emissions defeat devices were installed in diesel F250 and F350 trucks, causing them to produce 50 times more nitrogen oxide than legally permitted. Sound familiar? Well, Bosch was allegedly the company behind Volkswagen’s diesel cheating as well and we saw how that turned out for them. Unfortunately for Ford, half a million of these trucks have been sold from 2011 to 2017 and could be subject to this lawsuit and to recall. In the lawsuit, the plaintiffs allege that the Ford Super Duty pickups would have been better off called Super Dirty, thereby proving that lawyers are not completely devoid of humor, just devoid of good humor. We’ll see how this plays out for Ford and if they’ll be on the hook for billions like VW was when they got caught.
In other stories that just won’t die, Takata announced this week an expansion of their airbag inflater recalls, adding 3.3 million cars to the list, just in America, making it the largest of its kind. The cars range from Audis, BMWs, Jaguars, Land Rovers and Mercedes Benzes all the way to Fords, Subarus, Mitsubishis, Hondas, Mazdas and Fiat Chrysler cars. So everyone, please get these replaced if you receive a notice, because they do kill people. I’m less worried about the Fiat Chyrsler owners though, because a car has to be running to hit something and have the airbag go off and “running” isn’t really one of their strong suits.
A Rolls-Royce showroom in London will be the first location to feature the new Elysium-R. The $51,500 masterpiece features near-black pure aniline leather, an almond gold frame and will be limited to only 18 production units. It’s also a not a car, but actually just a chair. But it’s a really fancy chair that neutralizes gravity, implementing flotation theory, whatever that means. Also its gel-filled armrests are supposedly meant to mimic the quality of human skin, because everyone knows that rich people love nothing more than to rest their arms on the skin of the under-folk. This is apparently the product of years of research into human kinetics, which sounds an awful lot like some rich kid spent a few years sitting around and his rich dad told him to get off his ass and do something, so he made a chair.
Do you like driving? Are you from Turkmenistan? Are you a woman? Well shit news, you can’t drive anymore, honey. That’s according to their certifiably insane president Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, who last week banned all black cars because he thought they were unlucky. What’s his reasoning for banning women? Just some good, old-fashioned misogyny! Naturally he thinks pretty much all of the car crashes in the country are caused by or because of women, so banning them from the roads entirely, in his words, “rectifies the situation.” The ban was actually announced in December but has started getting implemented this week, with women drivers being stopped and having their licenses and cars seized by the government. Look, I’m sure Turkmenistan isn’t a shithole, but they sure do have a shithead for a president. You know you’re backwards when Saudi Arabia looks more progressive than you do.
Photo by Scott Sommerdorf of The Salt Lake Tribune
In other bad news for ladies, a woman in Clearfield City, Utah is going to be charged with a misdemeanor if she doesn’t remove her nuisance vehicle. The problem is, that vehicle is a 1973 Volkswagen Beetle that doesn’t run. Oh, and it’s also in a tree. Since it didn’t run, the owner, Janis Zettel, decided the right thing to do wasn’t to send it to the junkyard, but rather to paint it like a ladybug and have it chained up in a great big old tree as a fun little whimsical effort to put smiles on the faces of children. You hear that, Clearfield City? Think of the children! She even had an arborist check it out to make sure it was safe and that the car wouldn’t bring down the tree and harm anyone. I’m sure her neighbors love it, but hey, there are probably other houses in Clearfield City they can move to, the damn grinches.
British company Ginetta unveiled this week their G650-LT-P1, or G60 for short, and it’s a non-hybrid race car that they intend to race in the LeMans Prototype 1 category, which finally gives Toyota’s unreliable hybrid racer at least one competitor for the upcoming season! Or, well, at least part of it because Ginetta is only fielding two or maybe three cars if they can find the money, and they’re only committing to a “super series” of eight races beginning in May. And by only eight races, I mean holy shit, this is a small British manufacturer who has somehow scrounged up the pounds to compete with the world’s largest auto manufacturer at arguably the highest level of motor racing. Good for Ginetta and good for us because this’ll be interesting to watch!
In less than 24 hours, Ford teased, and then released all the details of the forthcoming Edge ST, which will now not debut at the Detroit Auto Show, but instead on your computer monitors or, more likely, your iPhone screen. Clearly their marketing department doesn’t really understand the concept of building “hype,” because they kind of did the same thing with the new Ford GT, which was arguably a much bigger deal. They could, for once, take a lesson from Elon Musk.
In any case, Ford’s prior ST cars include the Focus and Fiesta, which were fast, nimble little hatchbacks that were available only in manual transmission form for real driving purists, and they were apparently really good fun! Well, Ford has decided that crossover enthusiasts who never learned how to drive a stick deserve to have fun too, because they’ve basically taken the Ford Edge Sport and given it more sport, pumping its 2.7 litre EcoBoost four cylinder up to 335 horsepower and 350 foot pounds of torque routed through all four wheels. It looks and will probably drive a lot like a lifted WRX wagon, which is not a bad thing, so I’m actually on board with this idea. Yes, I generally oppose the concept of crossovers, but they don’t have to be boring and bad and kudos to Ford for trying to raise the bar that Infiniti set with their FX.
Authored by
Devlin Riggs
These headlines originally aired in the AllWaysDrive Podcast. Subscribe now and hear all the latest news and reviews!
After all the numbers came in for 2017, overall vehicle sales were down 1.8% over 2016, which marks the first decline in seven years and, unfortunately for car makers, there’s no real end in sight. That is, unless you’re a super car manufacturer. Aston Martin and McLaren both recorded their biggest ever sales years in 2017 because the rich are getting so incredibly stinking rich!
Anyway. During the recession, people held on to their cars longer because they couldn’t afford to replace them. This meant stiffer competition among automakers for the sales that were occurring, so they worked hard to make their cars more appealing, more reliable and safer. When the economy finally bounced back, people spent the next seven years getting rid of their old vehicles and upgrading to newer, better cars.The reports bear this out – cars these days are safer, more reliable and more satisfying than ever before, and so people are keeping them longer, leading to a sales decline.
Sure, you’ll still have incidents where people blow through red lights and total cars, thereby generating a certain amount of reluctant sales, but there are already 1.26 vehicles on the road for every one licensed driver, meaning we have a shit ton of unlicensed drivers out there, or people just have plenty of cars.
And that’s what the industry experts are thinking – we’ve reached peak car, where we’ll back off to a stable replacement level of sales each year. Plus, as interest rates rise, people aren’t going to want to take out loans for new cars either. So how will automakers cope with a shrinking pie from which to get slices? Will they keep innovating as they did during the recession to attract a larger share, or will they collectively start making their products less reliable so they go bad at a prescribed point, forcing owners to upgrade? This is what we’d call the iPhone sales tactic.
On the heels of the sales report, leasing looks like it’s going gangbusters. About 31 percent of all new vehicle sales are leases in the US, but if you look at plug-in hybrids, the number jumps to 55 percent of all sales. And then there’s pure electric vehicles. Eighty percent of all EV sales are leases, which is crazy. Almost all people want to essentially rent these cars for a few years and Bloomberg is reporting that a major cause of this is the overall sense among consumers that electric vehicles are going to get better than they are now, so they don’t want to be locked into obsolete technology. Plus, resale value of EVs is currently very, very poor so purchasing one outright just doesn’t really make any sense, apart from for those 20 percent of people who bought them outright. Enjoy your Leaf!
Of course, those EVs may start to look more attractive this year as the 2018 Fuel Price Outlook suggests that gas prices could peak at just less than $3 per gallon. GasBuddy predicts that the national average price will rise 19 cents to around $2.57 per gallon this year, which still is not THAT bad, especially when you look at the rest of the world. But combine that with the drop in fuel efficiency we saw among new car purchases last year and GasBuddy predicts the average household will spend $1,898 on fuel this year. That’s $133 more than last year, which is the cost of at least two nice taco dinners, and I cast shame upon the evil oil spectators behind this rise because nothing should stand between us and nice taco dinners!
Meanwhile in California, the land of the future, a bill has been introduced to the state legislature that would ban the sale of new cars and trucks powered by gasoline or diesel fuels by the year 2040. If you’ve been tuning into the show for a while, you’ll know that 2040 is also a deadline set by Paris, London and a few other cities or countries, with some even having more aggressive targets for pollution reduction. They estimate that the measure, if it’s adopted, would cut greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent from 1990 levels in just ten years. We’ll have to see how they end up voting, but I bet there are going to be some very busy lobbyists in Sacramento this week!
Mazda this week filed a patent for some technology that’s both innovative and incredibly creepy. It’s apparently all in an effort to thwart distracted or drowsy driving. Basically, there is a camera or series of cameras set up inside the car, pointed at the driver and the car’s computer uses the driver’s eyes and expression to determine if the driver is paying attention and engaged with the drive they’re going on. If it determines that the driver is busy checking texts or Facebook or dozing off, the car will apparently respond by doing anything from simple sounds and visual prompts to changing the navigation system to route the driver to a more fun-looking road to drive. If the driver looks like he or she is having fun and is entertained by the route, the computer will store that route for later reference. Basically, Mazda is going to find all the cool roads and fill them with CX-9s because drivers can’t put their stupid phones down anymore.
"Eyes on the road, buddy!" - Mazda
And speaking of creepy, Nissan is taking it to the next level with their new Brain to Vehicle (B2V) system, which they will be showing off this coming week at the Consumer Electronics Show. Drivers are fitted with a skull cap that monitors brain wave activity and transmits signals to steering, acceleration and braking systems that can respond before the driver even moves his or her hands or feet. The driver still actually makes the car do things, but the car just anticipates what’s going to happen and can start things milliseconds sooner. Apparently this is meant to enhance the driving pleasure when it seems to me it’s just cheaper to make cars faster and more responsive than to dump time and research into brain wave monitoring. But hey, they’re making money like crazy selling Nissan Rogues to people so they can do what they want I guess.
Meanwhile a Tesla earnings call this week managed to once again unveil the woeful under-performance of the company in meeting the goals its founder sets for it. Rather than churning out a few thousand Model 3s per week as predicted earlier this year, Tesla’s highest number yet was a little less than 800 and, let’s be honest, making almost 100 cars a day is still a super achievement and they’re ramping up effectively. The problem comes when the founder is all bluster about getting to 5,000 cars per week by the end of Q1 2018 which, by the way, has been pushed back to the end of the second quarter. Tesla’s stock took a hit after the announcement, which was, for once, not accompanied by some other shiny thing to distract investors from the problems going on. Tesla has a big year coming up with the launch of both their semi truck and the Model Y, but it’s critical they get their shit figured out quick, or buyers are going to start figuring out that hey, that Chevy Bolt is a pretty nice car and I can go buy one right now.
On Sunday night last week, a parking garage in Liverpool, England, resembled the gates of hell as a raging inferno engulfed 1,400 vehicles. Fortunately, no one was injured and, surprisingly, the fire wasn’t started by an Italian super car. It was rather friendly fire, coming from a Land Rover, of course vehicles not known for their wiring or electronics excellence. The fire really is something incredible to see, as you can tell from the video above. The fuel in the cars just fed the fire until it was completely unconquerable by the local fire brigade, meaning they couldn’t stop it spreading to other cars. Sort of like an automotive herpes that, instead of itching, just creates a huge insurance hassle for thousands of people.
A British Volkswagen Golf driver learned the hard way how squirrels are just rats with fluffy tails last month. Apparently he parked his car outside his girlfriend’s father’s home near London and then left with the girlfriend for a month to tour southeast Asia. During that time, several squirrels decided that hey, Volkswagen does make a pretty comfy car, and called the place home, storing acorns in every conceivable place throughout the vehicle they could access. The glove box, the engine bay, even the transmission was packed and the owner found it tough to shift when he returned home. The clean-up and disposal of hundreds of perfectly good acorns that would feed families of the little bastards throughout the winter cost the driver £230. Which is not a small sum, especially coming back from vacation.
In other food-related automotive antics, a driver in Texas got off with a warning this week when he was pulled over for a minor traffic violation. Apparently, prior to departing, he placed a hot dog on the rear bumper of his Chevy Silverado and taped a piece of paper with “Free hot dog” written on it above (hard to tell from the above photo, but easy to see how creepy it is) . He then proceeded to drive from Waco, Texas to Brownwood and back, a journey of more than 120 miles, before getting stopped. The hot dog and sign were still there. Now if you’re me, you think this is like the adult equivalent of free candy written on the side of a seedy van, but if you’re a Brown County sheriff's department officer, you just think he’s a funny dude and let him be on his way. Only a matter of time before witness reports roll in about bodies being found in the back of a white pickup with hot dog residue on the bumper.
You may or may not be aware, but New Jersey and Oregon both require full service gas stations, or at least they did. Oregon has started allowing rural stations to permit self serve. You know, the same kind of gas we have literally everywhere else in the country? Well apparently people are freaking out about it, don’t know how to pump their own gas and are afraid that they will either burn the whole place down or smell like gasoline the rest of the day. I get that if you grew up not doing it, you may not know how to pump gas, but I fail to believe that people have never watched an attendant do it for them, and I have absolutely zero sympathy for these pampered brats kicking and screaming to get the good old times back. This really seems like a Portlandia sketch in real life. But apparently that really just is the state of Oregon.
They aren’t the only place suffering though. Do you love black cars? Do you live in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan? Well tough luck. Your car has just been banned because the president of the oppressive country has decided they are bad luck and they must be impounded or repainted at the owner’s expense. And I do mean expense because it’s a very poor country and the people there can absolutely not afford to repaint their cars just because their president is a nut job. Sorry Turkmen!
Banned in Turkmenistan.
First up in new car news is actually the cancellation of a new car, or at least new design. In a letter to suppliers this week, Ford announced that they are canceling the planned redesign of the Ford Fusion which was scheduled for a 2020 launch. While this doesn’t mean that the Fusion itself has been discontinued and doesn’t rule out a major change coming later, this does look pretty bad, given the trouble brands have had with selling mid-sized sedans this past year. Buyers just want SUVs, trucks and crossovers these days and while Fusion sales are going okay, particularly to fleets, Ford apparently doesn’t see the value in spending time and money in refreshing a car that has only been around four years and remains one of the best looking cars in its class. That or this is the evidence we need to show that Ford is all a part of a massive marijuana smuggling scheme from where the Fusions roll off the line in Mexico. Remember those stories? Twice Fusions have been found with the spare tire well packed to the brim with weed awaiting receipt by a distributor in the US only to be discovered by a so-called innocent car buyer. Sure, Ford. I’m on to you.
While Ford foregoes redesigns of its cars, Audi has decided that their utter lack of creativity for their own cars needs to be changed. If you’re like me, you’ve probably sat in traffic, admiring an Audi and thought “that’s a really nice looking S6. Or, uh, A8. No, A4? RS4? Shit.” That’s apparently pretty common. According to an interview with Autocar, CEO Rupert Stadler says the similarity between models was used to make Audis more recognizable to emerging markets, which they say has worked swimmingly and now they’re free to spend money and be creative again. Marc Lichte, Audi’s Chief Designer, was quoted as saying something along the lines of “Oh, thank god, Jesus in heaven I’m bored to death over here and only have rulers on this drafting table!” New designs should start rolling out in March or April of this year.
This originally aired in The AllWaysDrive Podcast on January 4, 2018. Subscribe now and never miss the latest new car news!
Authored by
Devlin Riggs
